How It Works
Predict the future in four steps. Three layers of resolution ensure every market gets a fair outcome.
Connect Wallet
Link your HashPack or Blade wallet to PolyFly. Your wallet is your identity — no signups, no emails, no passwords.
Browse Markets
Explore prediction markets across crypto, sports, politics, entertainment, and chaos. Search, filter by category or state, and find the predictions that matter to you.
Buy Shares
Buy YES or NO shares priced between 1¢ and 99¢. The price reflects the market's estimated probability. A live countdown timer shows how long you have to trade.
Collect Winnings
When the market resolves, winning shares pay out $1 each. If you bought YES at 30¢ and the event happens, you profit 70¢ per share. Payouts are sent directly to your wallet.
🔮 How Markets Resolve
Every market goes through a multi-layer resolution pipeline. Most crypto markets resolve automatically. Others use community proposals and governance voting.
Market Expires
When the countdown hits zero, the market stops accepting bets and enters the resolution pipeline.
Layer 1: AI Oracle
Our automated oracle checks data sources — crypto prices (CoinGecko, CoinCap, Hedera Mirror Node), sports results (football leagues, UFC), and news feeds. If the answer is verifiable, it proposes an outcome automatically.
Layer 2: Community Proposal
If the AI can't resolve it, any user can propose an outcome by posting a bond (5 USDC or 50 HBAR). This starts a 2-hour challenge period. If nobody disputes, the bond is returned.
2-Hour Challenge
After an outcome is proposed (by AI or community), anyone can dispute it within 2 hours. No dispute = outcome is finalized. If disputed, it escalates to governance.
Layer 3: Governance Vote
Disputed markets go to a community vote. You can vote directly on the PolyFly market page — no need to visit another site. Votes are tallied after 24 hours and the outcome is applied automatically.
Resolution
Once finalized, winning shares pay out $1.00 each. Losers get $0. Claim your winnings with one click — USDC or HBAR sent directly to your wallet.
📊 Market States
Every market shows its current state with a color-coded badge.
Market is live. Buy YES or NO shares. A countdown timer shows time remaining.
Less than 1 hour until expiry. Timer turns red and pulses. Last chance to trade.
Market has expired. No more trading. The oracle is working on a resolution.
An outcome has been proposed. 2-hour challenge period is active. You can dispute if you think it's wrong.
Someone disputed the proposed outcome. A governance vote is underway to decide the final result.
Market is settled. Winners can claim their payouts. The final outcome is shown on the market card.
🤖 Oracle Data Sources
Different categories use different verification sources.
| Category | Data Sources | Auto-Resolve? |
|---|---|---|
| ₿Crypto | CoinGecko, CoinCap, Hedera Mirror Node, SaucerSwap | ✅ Yes |
| ⚽Sports | football-data.org (Premier League, La Liga, etc), ESPN (UFC/MMA), Ergast (F1) | ✅ Yes |
| 🗳️Politics | News verification (Google News, AP, Wikipedia) | ⚠️ Partial |
| 🎬Entertainment | News verification + community proposals | 👥 Community |
| 🌪️Chaos | Community proposals + governance | 👥 Community |
📊 How Pricing Works
Every market has YES and NO shares. Prices always add up to $1.00. If YES is trading at 70¢, the market believes there's a 70% chance the event happens.
💎 Fee Tiers
The more you commit to the ecosystem, the less you pay.
Standard fee for all traders
Monthly volume over $1,000 unlocks reduced fees
Hold and stake $FLY tokens for reduced fees
High-volume liquidity providers get the best rates
Why Hedera?
The ideal chain for prediction markets.
Fast Finality
3-5 second transaction finality means your trades settle almost instantly.
Ultra-Low Fees
Hedera transactions cost fractions of a cent. Trade frequently without gas worries.
Carbon Negative
One of the most energy-efficient public ledgers.
Enterprise Grade
Governed by Google, IBM, Boeing and others. Built to last.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
A prediction market lets you trade on the outcome of future events. Shares are priced $0.01–$0.99, representing the estimated probability. Winning shares pay out $1.00.
An automated market maker (AMM) sets prices based on supply and demand. As more people buy YES, the YES price rises and NO drops. YES + NO always equals $1.00.
A Hedera-compatible wallet like HashPack or Blade (free browser extensions). These hold HBAR, USDC, and other Hedera tokens.
New markets use USDC (stable, dollar-pegged). Some older markets use HBAR. Each market clearly shows its currency.
Markets go through up to 3 resolution layers: (1) AI Oracle automatically verifies crypto prices, sports results, and news events. (2) If the AI can't resolve it, any user can propose an outcome with a bond. (3) If disputed, a community governance vote decides. Most crypto markets resolve automatically within minutes of expiring.
After an outcome is proposed, there's a 2-hour window where anyone can dispute it. If nobody disputes, the outcome is finalized. This prevents incorrect resolutions from going through unchecked.
On the market page, click the "Dispute" button during the 2-hour challenge period. Provide your reason (min 10 characters). This escalates to a governance vote where the community decides.
Yes! If a market is expired and hasn't been auto-resolved, you can propose YES or NO by posting a bond (5 USDC or 50 HBAR). If your proposal is correct and unchallenged, you get your bond back. If wrong and disputed, you lose it.
$FLY is the utility token of the Fly ecosystem. Staking $FLY reduces your trading fees from 2% to 0.5%.
Yes! Define the question, category, deadline, and currency. Markets in crypto categories get auto-resolution. Sports and politics markets use a mix of data feeds and community proposals.
Bets go to the platform treasury on Hedera. Payouts are sent directly via Hedera Token Service. This is beta software — trade responsibly.